| Presidential Hopefuls Chasing Congressional Endorsements, But Value is Unclear
Monday, January 29, 2007
By Martin Kady II - CQ Today and New York Times
In the past few weeks, House Majority Whip James E. Clyburn, D-S.C., has taken a phone call from Hillary Rodham Clinton, lunched with Barack Obama and spoken several times with John Edwards.
Although none of those Democratic presidential hopefuls will ask for it outright, Clyburn knows what they want — his support in the crucial South Carolina primary in January 2008.
Clyburn, the highest-ranking African-American in Congress, is known as something of a kingmaker in South Carolina. And since his state’s Democratic primary will be the first 2008 nominating contest with a significant black voter turnout, Clyburn’s advice, support and grass-roots connections are highly coveted.
But Clyburn, unlike plenty of other House members, is staying out of the endorsement business for now. Further, Clyburn — like many political analysts — wonders whether congressional endorsements really matter.
“The political value of an endorsement by a member of Congress is only slightly more useful than an endorsement by a candidate’s mother,” said Ross K. Baker, a political scientist and congressional expert at Rutgers University. “People who run from Washington have an inflated view of the importance of the people they deal with in Washington. . . . It marks you as an insider.”
Clyburn is well aware of that. After all, in 2004, he endorsed Rep. Richard A. Gephardt, D-Mo. (1977-2005), and when Gephardt lost in the Iowa caucuses, Clyburn backed Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., who promptly lost by 15 points to Edwards in the South Carolina primary. Gephardt, a former House Democratic leader, had by far the most congressional endorsements, but that got him nowhere with Iowa voters.
As for this year’s crop of contenders, Clyburn says, “I have a personal relationship with all of them.” He has met with presidential contenders Joseph R. Biden Jr., D-Del., and Christopher J. Dodd, D-Conn. Like Clinton, D-N.Y., and Obama, D-Ill., they are juggling ongoing Senate duties with their White House campaigns. Edwards, D-N.C., a former senator (1999-2005), doesn’t have that balancing act to worry about.
“Endorsements don’t matter as much as they used to,” Clyburn said. “I don’t want to hurt any of them” by giving out an early endorsement.
Connections Count
Political experts, members of Congress and even some of presidential candidates themselves say it’s not the names on a list of congressional endorsements that matter but whether those members have the right combination of fundraising and grass-roots organizational strength in key states.
Clinton, long the Democratic front-runner in the polls, announced creation of her exploratory committee Jan. 20. She has disclosed no specific congressional endorsements, but her campaign has been aggressive in building credibility in key states. For example, even though Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, has not endorsed a candidate yet, Clinton has hired Harkin’s former chief of staff, JoDee Winterhof, to lead her Iowa ground operation. That is designed to send a signal to Iowa Democrats.
Obama, who trails far behind Clinton in the polls but is seen as an exciting “new face” in the contest, is working on congressional endorsements. He has the backing of his home-state colleague, Senate Majority Whip Richard J. Durbin, D-Ill.
Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kan., who had the misfortune of launching his presidential campaign the same day that Clinton’s announcement grabbed all the media attention, says he’s not worried about gaining Washington endorsements. Rather, Brownback is lining up prominent local conservative activists in Iowa and New Hampshire.
“My experience has been that people you want on your side are the grass-roots activists,” Brownback said. “The folks on the ground are the ones you want.”
Some high-profile members of Congress are simply laying low. Rep. Rahm Emanuel, D-Ill., chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, is refusing to choose between backing his hometown friend Obama and Clinton, whose husband helped launch his political career.
Like Clyburn in South Carolina, Iowa Republican Sen. Charles E. Grassley is used to being wooed by GOP presidential contenders every four years. Grassley says he’s not going to endorse a candidate anytime soon; he wants to let the field shake out a bit before he publicly backs a candidate.
But when he is ready to decide, he has one overriding test. “Republicans in Iowa should look at it from the perspective of who can beat Hillary, because she’s got this thing sewn up,” Grassley said. “They have to decide if they want another Clinton presidency.”
Romney Bandwagon
Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who is trying to position himself as the preferred candidate for conservatives, believes congressional endorsements will give him credibility.
“An endorsement on its own is just a name on a piece of paper, but each of these endorsements carries a fundraising organization and a grass-roots organization,” said Romney campaign spokesman Kevin Madden. “These alliances are important.”
Romney has won the endorsements of eight members of Congress, most notably former Speaker J. Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., and those members will also act as local organizers for the Romney campaign.
Romney needs to establish a beachhead of support in Washington because he’s less well known than Clinton, Obama and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.
“The endorsement won’t mean much unless you get out there and work it” among voters, said Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., who has endorsed Romney and will lend help from his statewide political network in the South Carolina primary. “But it will show people that the guy they support for Congress supports this candidate. . . . There is a rush for endorsements, but if you’re going to make a difference, you have to start early.”
Rep. Jack Kingston, R-Ga., was among about three dozen House conservatives who gathered recently to hear Romney speak, and came away impressed. Kingston plans to help Romney raise money in Georgia and will try to rally more House Republicans behind his campaign.
“We all have donor lists that are $1 million,” Kingston said. “Romney has a good story. If you can play in New England as a Republican, that’s important to us.”
McCain’s reputation as a maverick may have won him voter support in polls, but he clearly has made some enemies on Capitol Hill. And that may cost him endorsements from colleagues in the run-up to key primaries.
“If Romney is sitting there with 100 members of Congress and McCain has 20, that raises a question,” Kingston said. “If you don’t endorse somebody, that says something.”
When McCain last ran for president, in 2000, only four of his fellow senators endorsed him.
Sen. Trent Lott, R-Miss., has already endorsed McCain for the 2008 race, but it’s unclear whether any other GOP senators will do so. McCain has taken a major political risk with his vocal support of increasing troops in Iraq.
Baker, the Rutgers political scientist, says the lack of endorsements by Washington insiders won’t matter to caucus and primary voters, who are more likely to listen to candidate debates and influential community leaders.
Endorsements “may show your colors to America’s political elite, but it doesn’t help with primary voters,” Baker said. “The endorsement of a popular local pastor might be more influential.”
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